-Global growth may average 3.25 per cent to 3.5 per cent in the next three to five years, well below the 4.7 per cent pace of the five years leading up to the 2008 slump, estimates Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
- The fair value of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is 900, according to Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist in Boston at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. That's 22.5 per cent below the July 23 close of 1,102.66 in New York. He says developed economies will be 'lucky' to grow 2 per cent annually for the next seven years, and he favours stocks of companies with high, stable returns and less debt.
-In a sign of strength, data last week showed the UK economy expanded 1.1 per cent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in four years and almost twice economists' forecasts. German business confidence unexpectedly surged to a three-year high this month, according to the Ifo institute in Munich. Its index based on a survey of 7,000 executives jumped to 106.2 from 101.8 in June, the biggest gain since 1990.
-'There will be possibly a period of slower growth beginning in end markets later this year,' George Buckley, chief executive officer of 3M Co, told analysts on July 22. 'This isn't a double-dip per se,' he added. 'It's just a soft spot and very normal as economic growth takes a breather for a while and adjusts to new circumstances.' The St Paul, Minnesota-based company is considered an economic bellwether because its product range spans the automotive, consumer and health-care markets.
-Much of the deceleration in underlying growth appears likely to come in the industrial world. US consumers are still working off the debts they built up during the housing boom. Since hitting a record US$1.39 trillion in the second quarter of 2008, household debt has fallen steadily to US$1.35 trillion in the first quarter, according to Fed figures.
-SINCE the start of the year, investment sentiment has swung between optimism and fear, buffeted by myriad issues ranging from European debt to US unemployment. Barclays Wealth's investment view reflects this dichotomy - a 'bimodal' world, as chief investment officer Aaron Gurwitz puts it, where the probability of the potential outcome is almost evenly split between a positive market where stocks deliver a double-digit return, and a negative one where deflation ensues.
-In a statement, Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, said: 'Growth and profit expectations have double-dipped. Should upcoming data fail to confirm a double-dip, risk assets will have a much better third quarter.'
-Barclays Wealth Asia strategist Manpreet Gill also advises a 'barbell' approach to a stock portfolio. The bank's buy list, for instance, favours two segments - relatively defensive and income oriented names which can be found among Singapore stocks; and Hong Kong stocks which are more cyclical and recovery oriented. Some examples include A-Reit, DBS, and M1; and Hong Kong's China Shenhua and Beijing Enterprise.
- Shares rebounded in the past three weeks as 84 per cent of the 149 S&P 500 companies that reported results since July 12 topped the average analyst earnings estimates, Bloomberg data show. Profits may rise an average 35 per cent in 2010 and 17 per cent in 2011, according to forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. More than 160 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to post quarterly results this week, including Irving, Texas-based ExxonMobil Corp, the biggest US oil producer.
- Property- Property plays benefiting from tourism boom
The Singapore Tourism Board (STB) released yet another good set of tourism
numbers for June yesterday, indicating we are on the brink of touching the last
tourism peak in 2006. We believe 3Q performances will top 2Q performances with
mega-events lined up in Singapore. Top property beneficiaries of the tourism boom
will be hospitality stocks with maximum re-pricing ability; followed by retail-related stocks which are able to capture sales upside in gross turnover rent. Hotels and retail malls in prime locations or near tourist hotspots such as the Marina Bay area, Sentosa and Orchard Road should do markedly better than other locations, in our
view.
-Net inflows in June. Net inflows for EM Asia came up to US$0.76bn in June, a reversalfrom the sharp US$2.8bn outflows in May. Asean-4 markets all benefited from netinflows in June, with Malaysia receiving net inflows for the first time since Nov 09.Cumulatively, only Indonesia and India drew positive net inflows in 1H10. There werecumulative outflows in China, followed by Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. While
cash holdings climbed marginally in June, the risk appetite may be picking up with
weightings raised for cyclical stocks across Asean.
-Choppy markets. European debt concerns linger in the background. We maintain that
while moderating growth is to be expected, risks of a double-dip recession remain low.Markets would likely continue to trade around mid-cycle P/E and P/BV valuations, withup to 8% upside expected to end the year. On a regional sector basis, tech, financials,utilities and small-cap offshore & marine remain attractive on a market-adjusted ROE toP/BV basis.
-
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Singapore Airport Trml Svcs Ltd (S58)
Date: 20-Jul-10
Company: Singapore Airport Trml Svcs Ltd
Current P/E: 15.83
Current Price: 2.81
Core Business
The company is the leading provider of integrated ground handling and inflight catering services at Singapore Changi Airport. Through joint ventures, SAT' network of ground handling and airline catering operations spans 15 airports in the Asia Pacific region.
The company provides the following services to its airline clients:
- Ground handling services, including: air freight handling services; passenger services; baggage handling services; and apron services;
- Inflight catering services, including aircraft interior cleaning and cabin handling;
- Aviation security services;
- Airline laundry services; and
- Air cargo delivery and management services.
SATS has more than 50 years of experience in the business and was listed on the SGX Mainboard in May 2000.
Management Strategies
Singapore Airport Terminal Services Limited (SATS) is an investment holding company. The Company's other activities include rental of premises and provision of management services to related companies. As of March 31, 2010, the Company handles 80% of the scheduled flights and serves about 50 of the 68 scheduled airlines out of Singapore Changi Airport. It has a presence in 31 airports in nine countries in Asia. The Company is an associated company of Venezio Investments Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited. The Company ceased to be a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines Limited effective September 1, 2009.
Business Risk
1. Aviation Demand 2. Economy and Sentiments 3. Tourism 4.Food Solutions
Company: Singapore Airport Trml Svcs Ltd
Current P/E: 15.83
Current Price: 2.81
Core Business
The company is the leading provider of integrated ground handling and inflight catering services at Singapore Changi Airport. Through joint ventures, SAT' network of ground handling and airline catering operations spans 15 airports in the Asia Pacific region.
The company provides the following services to its airline clients:
- Ground handling services, including: air freight handling services; passenger services; baggage handling services; and apron services;
- Inflight catering services, including aircraft interior cleaning and cabin handling;
- Aviation security services;
- Airline laundry services; and
- Air cargo delivery and management services.
SATS has more than 50 years of experience in the business and was listed on the SGX Mainboard in May 2000.
Management Strategies
Singapore Airport Terminal Services Limited (SATS) is an investment holding company. The Company's other activities include rental of premises and provision of management services to related companies. As of March 31, 2010, the Company handles 80% of the scheduled flights and serves about 50 of the 68 scheduled airlines out of Singapore Changi Airport. It has a presence in 31 airports in nine countries in Asia. The Company is an associated company of Venezio Investments Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited. The Company ceased to be a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines Limited effective September 1, 2009.
Business Risk
1. Aviation Demand 2. Economy and Sentiments 3. Tourism 4.Food Solutions
Friday, July 16, 2010
FRENCKEN GROUP LIMITED
if you had saw their financial report in May, would you have buy it? Now that sudden shot up from 2.5 to 3.5.. since May there have been alot of share buy back...
z says:
past 4 yrs revenue: dropping from 222.2,246.2,227 to 206.9
operating income dropped from 31.7, 25.5, 15.9 to -1.1
net income dropping from 26.3,23,14.7 to 9.2,
touch economical environment for technology business
good thing: at may, cash 59m, total borrowing 38m,NAV at 51.9,PE at 9.6.PB at 0.7
got extra cash to do buy back to increase per share value, price still ok
concern:can they improve the revenue and bottom line in the long run?
inventory went up from 55m to 71m, another concern about efficiency too
anyway, technology company quite cyclical,
now got quite a number of companies with low PE, PB with extra cash, my concern is their long tern earning ability
take a look at Avi-Tech Electronics
similiar, latest PE at 12,PB at 1, has about 50m cash, debt only about 12m,
z says:
past 4 yrs revenue: dropping from 222.2,246.2,227 to 206.9
operating income dropped from 31.7, 25.5, 15.9 to -1.1
net income dropping from 26.3,23,14.7 to 9.2,
touch economical environment for technology business
good thing: at may, cash 59m, total borrowing 38m,NAV at 51.9,PE at 9.6.PB at 0.7
got extra cash to do buy back to increase per share value, price still ok
concern:can they improve the revenue and bottom line in the long run?
inventory went up from 55m to 71m, another concern about efficiency too
anyway, technology company quite cyclical,
now got quite a number of companies with low PE, PB with extra cash, my concern is their long tern earning ability
take a look at Avi-Tech Electronics
similiar, latest PE at 12,PB at 1, has about 50m cash, debt only about 12m,
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Value investment 4
In case you plan to invest in stocks then, you should follow the below mentioned tips to increase your chances of profit and lower your risks of loss.
* In case you are new to the stock market, or if you already have investments but would like to decrease your costs, then you should select a broker.
* Acquire sufficient knowledge regarding stocks and the market. Attend a seminar or class on basics of investing.
* Review various online financial sites.
* Create financial goals and an investing plan, before you get started.
* Before investing, you must read annual or quarterly reports and also other documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission and research individual stocks.
* Always invest in the stocks which you know. You must consider investing in the stocks of local companies which you are well versed with, and in which you have trust.
* The holdings of few successful mutual fund companies should be examined.
* You must diversify your investments in stock. Refrain from investing money in just one or two stocks.
* To save commissions, you can utilize a discount brokerage to purchase stocks, in case you are confident in your investment skills.
* You should purchase stocks which you are comfortable holding for three to five years.
* Avoid dumping a stock the moment its prices drop by some points. You should have patience to wait for the points of the share to further increase.
* Prior to the investment in stocks you must always judge the risk that you can bear.
* In case you can’t research and review stocks regularly then you must invest in mutual funds.
* You must invest for long terms to generate greater profits.
Hence, investing in stocks is not to be done in haste and under any influence. You need to analyze the details of the company thoroughly before investing in the shares of that particular company.
* In case you are new to the stock market, or if you already have investments but would like to decrease your costs, then you should select a broker.
* Acquire sufficient knowledge regarding stocks and the market. Attend a seminar or class on basics of investing.
* Review various online financial sites.
* Create financial goals and an investing plan, before you get started.
* Before investing, you must read annual or quarterly reports and also other documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission and research individual stocks.
* Always invest in the stocks which you know. You must consider investing in the stocks of local companies which you are well versed with, and in which you have trust.
* The holdings of few successful mutual fund companies should be examined.
* You must diversify your investments in stock. Refrain from investing money in just one or two stocks.
* To save commissions, you can utilize a discount brokerage to purchase stocks, in case you are confident in your investment skills.
* You should purchase stocks which you are comfortable holding for three to five years.
* Avoid dumping a stock the moment its prices drop by some points. You should have patience to wait for the points of the share to further increase.
* Prior to the investment in stocks you must always judge the risk that you can bear.
* In case you can’t research and review stocks regularly then you must invest in mutual funds.
* You must invest for long terms to generate greater profits.
Hence, investing in stocks is not to be done in haste and under any influence. You need to analyze the details of the company thoroughly before investing in the shares of that particular company.
Value investment 3
Words of Wisdom
Some Things Cannot Be Foreseen
"The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very important quality"
Jean Jacques Rosseau
July 13, 2010
We Are Going To Have Another Recession In The Next 2 Or 3 Years
We are certainly going to have another recession in the next two or three years. We have had recessions every four to six years since the beginning of time. So by 2012, we are getting ready to have another one, if history is any guide. I suspect it will happen before then, because there are still so may imbalances in the world which have to be sorted out.
Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.
Some Things Cannot Be Foreseen
"The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very important quality"
Jean Jacques Rosseau
July 13, 2010
We Are Going To Have Another Recession In The Next 2 Or 3 Years
We are certainly going to have another recession in the next two or three years. We have had recessions every four to six years since the beginning of time. So by 2012, we are getting ready to have another one, if history is any guide. I suspect it will happen before then, because there are still so may imbalances in the world which have to be sorted out.
Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Super Group
Group started in 1987 with the founding of Super Coffeemix Marketing Enterprises. On 20 June 1994, the Company was converted into a public limited company and took on its present name. The principal activities of the Company are those of manufacturer of instant cereal flakes, packers and distributors of instant beverages and convenience food products. Today, Super's products are distributed to more than 50 countries worldwide through its distribution network comprising of local retailers and distributors. Super has 13 manufacturing plants located in Singapore, Malaysia, China, Myanmar and Thailand.
Strength
- Numerous awards and accolades as good track record
- Well recognized brands. Strong marketing strategy
- Excellent manufacturing capability, a global distribution network
- Veteran management tean
- Minimal affect by the recent global financial crisis. Key market where instant coffeemix is preferred for its price and convenience.
Quantitative Analysis
Share Capital
| Number of Issued Shares (excluding Treasury Shares) | 537,738,980 |
| Number/Percentage of Treasury Shares | 4,804,000 (0.89%) |
Gross Profit Margin : In FY 09, the gross profit margin was 34.9%, 1.7 percentage points from 33.2% in FY 08 due to production efficiency and better cost control. Boosted profit to $41.7 million.
Debt and cash in hand: Cash and cash equivalent: 70.5M as at 31 Dec 2009. Decreasing trend of debt to equity ratio.
1. What is the margin of safety?
2. what is the intrinsic value?
Value investment 2
Interesting, i just came across the post from Marc Faber. It was just the similar conversation i had with Zhang Peng. Yes, indeed, this adds to my resolve to rebalancing my portfolio.. I wish Mr Market can be on my side of the fence.
Most Investors Take Far Too Many Risks – Often With Borrowed Money
I feel that most investors take far too many risks – often with borrowed money – and fail to diversify sufficiently. They also have little patience, very short-term time horizons and no tolerance for losses. Finally, their expectations about investment returns are completely unrealistic. Most investors buy a stock or make an investment with the view that within a month the return should be between 10% and 20%.
A real return of around 4% per annum is about what an investor (exclusive of costs, and without making the mistake to buy “high” and sell “low”) could expect to achieve over longer periods of time… If you can achieve an annual average real return of just 3% on all your assets (inflation adjusted), you will leave a huge fortune to your children.
For the average investor like myself, I prefer diversification and no leverage. I have seen time and again investors (including myself) be right about an asset class’ future performance but fail to convert those views into any capital gains… All I wish to say to my readers who are not managing risk on a daily basis is that the prime consideration should always be capital preservation and avoiding large losses.
in www.wallstreetpit.com
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.
Most Investors Take Far Too Many Risks – Often With Borrowed Money
A real return of around 4% per annum is about what an investor (exclusive of costs, and without making the mistake to buy “high” and sell “low”) could expect to achieve over longer periods of time… If you can achieve an annual average real return of just 3% on all your assets (inflation adjusted), you will leave a huge fortune to your children.
For the average investor like myself, I prefer diversification and no leverage. I have seen time and again investors (including myself) be right about an asset class’ future performance but fail to convert those views into any capital gains… All I wish to say to my readers who are not managing risk on a daily basis is that the prime consideration should always be capital preservation and avoiding large losses.
in www.wallstreetpit.com
Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Is it the right time to sell my HDB?
The HDB Resale Price Index tracks the overall price movement of the public residential market. The Index is used by comparing how it changes from one period from another. For example, if the index increases from 100 to 108 in one year, it means that on the whole, HDB resale flat prices increased by 8% over this period.
HDB Price Trend
Median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) for Resale Cases Registered in the 1st Quarter 2010
Comparing the Demand on 1st Quarter
Transacted Resale Price
Year | Quarter | Index | % Change from Previous Quarter |
2010 | II (Flash Estimate) | 160.9 | 3.8% |
HDB Price Trend
Weights Based on 12-quarters Moving Average Transactions
Regions | Weightages for 2Q2010 RPI | |||
3R (29%) | 4R (37%) | 5R (26%) | Exec (8%) | |
| Northern | 10% | 20% | 20% | 19% |
| North-Eastern | 21% | 20% | 29% | 21% |
| Eastern | 15% | 16% | 14% | 25% |
| Western | 23% | 32% | 27% | 28% |
| Central | 31% | 12% | 10% | 7% |
Median Resale Prices by Town and Flat Type for Resale Cases Registered in 1st Quarter 2010
| Town | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive |
| Jurong West | - | - | $243,500 | $336,000 | $413,000 | $475,000 |
Median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) for Resale Cases Registered in the 1st Quarter 2010
| Town | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive | Overall |
| Jurong West | - | - | $20,500 | $27,000 | $28,000 | $30,000 | $26,000 |
Comparing the Demand on 1st Quarter
Resale Cases Registered in 1st Quarter 2010
| Quarter | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive | Total |
| 1Q2010 | 3 | 122 | 2,471 | 3,190 | 2,047 | 651 | 8,484 |
Resale Cases Registered between 1st Quarter 2009
| Quarter | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive | Total |
| 1Q2009 | 5 | 64 | 2,011 | 2,488 | 1,506 | 372 | 6,446 |
Resale Cases Registered between 1st Quarter to 4th Quarter 2008
| Quarter | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive | Total |
| 1Q2008 | 3 | 59 | 1,854 | 2,415 | 1,574 | 453 | 6,358 |
Transacted Resale Price
| HDB Town |  | |  | | | |
| Jurong West | 608 | 11 to 15 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $510,000.00 | Jun 2010 |
| Jurong West | 606 | 11 to 15 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $503,000.00 | Feb 2010 |
| Jurong West | 609 | 01 to 05 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $488,000.00 | Feb 2010 |
| Jurong West | 606 | 06 to 10 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $475,000.00 | Nov 2009 |
| Jurong West | 608 | 11 to 15 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $451,000.00 | Oct 2009 |
| Jurong West | 609 | 11 to 15 | 133.00 Premium Apartment | 2001 | $460,000.00 | Sep 2009 |
Monday, July 5, 2010
Value Investing
Yes! Value investing should be the way to go. What the hell have i been doing with my investment? Serve me right for devaluing my investment portfolio. Anyway, it is never too late to jump back on track. My target is to get back my 20% gain on my current portfolio! It's time to start managing my money properly!
I shall add this topic to remind myself to when i rebalance my portfolio from this year.
Value investing!
Few notes on value investing:
1. Ensure that there is a sufficient margin of safety whose market price is below the company's intrinsic value. This basically means look for undervalued company stocks
2. Selling the stock when the market price reaches the intrinsic value. This is important as you need to have an exit strategy. In plenty opportunities, people don't exit and hence hold on the share through the rollar coaster ride.
So what is the action plan?
1. First look at the value of the company on the stock exchange which is the market price
2. Then look at the company's business value. This business value is the intrinsic value based on its 'real time' value in the event of a merger with a competitor or in a takeover situation. Alternatively, can be considered as dissecting the company and selling all its asset. (?NAV).
Stock prices tends to reflect over or under the business value hence this could be a possible way to mitigate the risk of losing your money and maximizing your gains.
Investment should only be made when the market price is considerably lower than the business value. A MINIMUM OF 40% to 50% below. This difference between the market value and business value is called the 'margin of safety'.
Value investors must demonstrate PATIENCE when growth stocks are most popular among investors. Value stocks and growth stocks tends to alternatively lead the performance statistics.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Genting Review
Reported in July 2 that shares of Genting Singapore rose as much as 1.7 percent in heavy trading on Friday, after it said it will sell its UK casino operations to parent Genting Malaysia
It looks like analysts review that Genting Singapore should be posting a positive bottom-line after the sale, after selling its UK operations since UK operations will still be loss-making this year," OCBC said in a report.
It is reported that Genting Singapore will receive net proceeds of around S$688.8 million and will book an excess over book value of around S$103.6 million
Genting Malaysia said on Thursday the acquisition complements the firm's long-term international expansion strategy, with plans to enter markets in Europe and the United States.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Lion Asia Pac (LAP SP) SGX
Focus on Lion Asia Pac
About LAP SP
Lion Asiapac Limited is an investment holding company.
Main business: Engages in the design-in and distribution of semiconductors and related components, limestone processing, and scrap metal trading activities in the People’s Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Thailand. The company also involves in the turnkey project management and sale of network products. In addition, it produces and supplies quicklime to the steel mills.
Highlights in March/April 2010
Cash S$ 190.174m and debt S$ 0.257m = net cash S$189.917 or S$0.467 per shr
NAV = S$0.5393
S$ 134m from disposal of automotive business in China (Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co)
Dividend payouts: S$0.01 pr shr for past 3 yrs, S$0.05, S$0.007 and S$0.005 in 2006, 2005 and 2004
On 31 Mar - Price hit $0.45 on open and now $0.46 (27% up) on news of special $0.15/shr dividend.
Hightlights in June/July 2010
On 30 June 2010, firm proposes another $0.10 per share or (S$40.5mn) ex 13, payable 29 July 2010.
Cash pre both dividend is S$188.416mn or S$0.46 per share
Borrowings are at S$0.371mn
Share number is at 405.522704 mn x price of S$0.26 (close) = S$105.43 mn
After giving the latest dividend, firm will still have S$87.04mn or S$0.21
On 1 July 2010, Price rallied to S$0.330
Hightlights in June/July 2010
On 30 June 2010, firm proposes another $0.10 per share or (S$40.5mn) ex 13, payable 29 July 2010.
Cash pre both dividend is S$188.416mn or S$0.46 per share
Borrowings are at S$0.371mn
Share number is at 405.522704 mn x price of S$0.26 (close) = S$105.43 mn
After giving the latest dividend, firm will still have S$87.04mn or S$0.21
On 1 July 2010, Price rallied to S$0.330
Genting Review
My question:
Why is Genting Share price keep going up for the these few months (May -July 2010)
Zhang Peng Answer:
Genting is divesting its uk casino operations for 688m, but this is a strange as they bought the business in 2006 for 1861m.
Currently, Genting got 3744m current asset, 781m in current liabilities and 4590m in non-current liabilities, but NTV only less than 40cents
1st quarter, there was a lost of 478m in intangible asset value attributable from the lost in uk casino operations. Maybe this is the reason they are selling it
RWS revenue has increased a lot. Everyone is positive that they will make money after selling uk business. That is probably why the price has been increasing. Possibly everyone is queueing up to get special dividend
Why is Genting Share price keep going up for the these few months (May -July 2010)
Zhang Peng Answer:
Genting is divesting its uk casino operations for 688m, but this is a strange as they bought the business in 2006 for 1861m.
Currently, Genting got 3744m current asset, 781m in current liabilities and 4590m in non-current liabilities, but NTV only less than 40cents
1st quarter, there was a lost of 478m in intangible asset value attributable from the lost in uk casino operations. Maybe this is the reason they are selling it
RWS revenue has increased a lot. Everyone is positive that they will make money after selling uk business. That is probably why the price has been increasing. Possibly everyone is queueing up to get special dividend
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)